Demand for Dominance: Geopolitical Drivers and Trends of F-35 Foreign Military Sales

In the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the German parliament approved a €100 billion ‘Special Fund for the Armed Forces,’ which ended, among other things, Berlin’s longstanding hesitancy to procure the F-35 Lightning II. This is but one of many examples of governments responding to changing threat environments by signing procurement deals for the F-35 or expanding existing orders.   

Heightened regional tensions, such as the above mentioned Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, and the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, have spurred demand for the F-35. Countries like Poland, Finland, and Japan have made substantial acquisitions.  Germany’s sharp increase in orders following the Russian invasion of Ukraine illustrates the direct link between regional conflicts and defense acquisitions. Similarly, East Asia’s growth in orders, particularly after 2019, reflects security concerns over Taiwan and broader tensions in the South China Sea.

Economically, the F-35’s competitive production costs, coupled with its compatibility with NATO requirements, make it an attractive option for countries seeking to modernize their fleets. Rising defense budgets among NATO members and other non-NATO allies, such as Singapore, have also facilitated the adoption of the F-35. These increased budgets have been fueled by growing regional security concerns and commitments to collective defense. Spikes in orders are closely tied to geopolitical events, such as Eastern Europe’s surge following 2018 and East Asia’s peak in 2019. 

With the F-35 and the FMS program to export it to allied militaries, the United States continues to field a powerful ace up its sleeve. Washington should continue to leverage the F-35  as a diplomatic and strategic tool, streamlining sales approvals for nations facing immediate security challenges, and tailoring strategies to regional priorities. The U.S. should also expand maintenance and modernization packages to build trust with partner nations and encourage follow-up orders.

However, care must be taken to avoid over-reliance on the F-35, oversaturating the market, or allowing delays to erode partnerships. By addressing these considerations, the FMS program can continue to strengthen alliances, bolster global stability, and advance U.S. foreign policy and national security objectives.

The Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft

The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is a fifth-generation stealth fighter designed for the U.S. to maintain air superiority, ground attack, and reconnaissance missions. Developed under the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program, it was created to replace aging aircraft like the F-16 and F/A-18. The program aimed to provide advanced capabilities while maintaining cost efficiency,enhancing interoperability among U.S. military branches and allied forces.

The F-35 program includes three variants tailored to specific operational needs: the F-35A for conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL), the F-35B for short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL), and the F-35C for aircraft carrier operations. The F-35A had its first flight on December 15, 2006, with the F-35B entering service with the U.S. Marine Corps in July 2015. The U.S. Air Force declared the F-35A operational in August 2016, followed by the F-35C’s with the Navy in February 2019.

The aircraft’s design incorporates cutting-edge stealth technology, advanced avionics, and modular systems to meet the diverse needs of its operators. The F-35 can achieve speeds of Mach 1.6, has a combat radius of around 1,100 kilometers (685 miles), and features a range of armament options, including air-to-air missiles, air-to-ground munitions , and a 25mm GAU-22/A cannon.

The F-35 has become a vital element in the defense strategies of many nations, and as a side effect, gets many governments above NATO’s 2% spending goal. Beyond achieving a mere increase in defense budget allocation, the F-35 constitutes a real upgrade to many militaries and their respective combat power. Driven by its superior capabilities, ability to operate effectively in contested environments, armament and role flexibility, and compatibility with NATO standards, including interoperability among allies, the F-35 enhances force posture everywhere — whether that is on NATO’s Eastern Flank or in the Indo-Pacific. It is currently in service with multiple countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan, and continues to see growing adoption worldwide.

The F-35’s Technological Edge over its Competitors

The F-35 is undoubtedly one of the most technologically advanced and effective fighter jets on the market. Market competitors like the Eurofighter Typhoon, the Boeing F/A-18E Super Hornet, or the French Dassault Rafaele are not quite as stealthy or adaptable as the F-35. For example, the F/A-18 was designed specifically for the U.S. Navy. It excels in carrier operations but cannot be easily adapted for other mission sets.  It is also almost 30 years older in terms of initial manufacturing, and has only 17,750 pound-force of power compared to the F-35s 43,000 pound-force.

The F/A-18 also cannot climb as high as the F-35—the Super Hornet’s service ceiling remains at 15,000 feet below the F-35. While the F/A-18 is purpose-built for naval operations, it surprisingly takes more than double the distance to take-off (457m vs 168m) and almost double for landing (400m vs 213m). This means that, by comparison, the F-35 is better suited to operate on amphibious assault ships, shorter runways, and adverse airfields. This helps increase sortie rate, ability to operate closer to the frontlines, and entails that the F-35 can be deployed on a broader range of ship classes, ranging from the largest super-carriers of the Ford class to comparatively small vessels such as the Italian Trieste class, giving the plane even more flexibility and utility. The F-35 also has a more sophisticated radar system to engage targets contemporarily, a larger weapons payload and it has night vision capabilities unlike the F/A-18.

The Eurofighter Typhoon might be a closer competitor in terms of speed, take-off distance, and cruise speed. However, the F-35 has the upper hand when it comes to stealth, weapon capacity, and higher situational awareness thanks to the sensor fusion that detects heat from other aircraft and lets the computer assess the level of threat.

When it comes to the Dassault Rafale, it is pertinent  to point out that the French fighter is more expensive than the F-35. The Rafale, however, has its perks that come with the costs: higher cruise speed, travel range, rate of climb and larger weapons payload. On the other hand, the F-35 has a 10,000ft higher service ceiling, better fuel economy, less than half the distance needed for takeoff and landing, and, as mentioned previously, has unbeatable stealth capabilities. 

The F-35 also maintains an edge over non-Western competitors, primarily the Russian Su-57 and the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s J-20.  While the two fighters might attempt to get on equal levels, neither of the two, similarly to the other fighters in the market, lack sensor fusion. The F-35 also still has advantages pertaining target range and accuracy, stealth, and effective manned-unmanned aerial teaming. The J-20, however, has a much higher weapons capacity of nearly 28,000 pounds. Because of the highly advanced technological attributes of the F-35, there is currently still no other fighter jet on the market, friendly or unfriendly, capable of outcompeting it. 

Foreign Military Sales of the F-35 Fighter Jet

Foreign Military Sales (FMS) is a government program established to provide security assistance to countries allied with the U.S. and authorized through the Arms Export Control Act (AECA). It involves the approval of sale for defense articles and services that advance U.S. foreign policy goals of national security and global stability. Both the State Department and the Department of Defense  are involved in this process:  DoD is involved in the FMS process, while the State Department executes the sales

The FMS program exemplifies the intersection of technological innovation, geopolitical strategy, and economic impact. Over the years, the program has seen remarkable growth, driven by regional security concerns, rising defense budgets, and the jet’s unique capabilities. The fighter jet has become a critical component for modernizing allied fleets, fostering interoperability within NATO, and addressing specific regional threats.

The following graphs display the trends in the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) of the F-35 since its introduction to the market in 2009, focusing on sales patterns and geopolitical factors to uncover the primary drivers behind customer acquisitions. The goal is to forecast future F-35 order trajectories and identify potential customer nations by analyzing emerging defense requirements and market demand. The study explores how nations navigate trade-offs between defense priorities and budgetary constraints, providing insights into the F-35’s market potential and its role in shaping international defense partnerships. By examining the F-35’s strategic utility, the study highlights how these sales can serve as a political and diplomatic tool to strengthen alliances, expand U.S. influence, and safeguard national security.

The F-35 program has seen steady growth in orders over the years: Japan placed significant orders in 2020, Israel in 2023. Canada recently ordered its first fighter jet in 2018 followed by a spike in orders in 2023 along with another new program entry, Finland, ordering 64 F-35s. More recently, countries like Poland, Romania, Greece, and Czechia have joined the program as new entrants, highlighting the F-35’s increasing relevance in modern defense strategies.  

Common drivers appear among specific countries that share the same region. East Asian countries have had a steady growth in orders since 2010 with a sharp peak in 2019.  Countries in eastern Europe began ordering the jet starting 2018 with a peak in 2022. The rest of Europe and countries in the commonwealth have similar growth in orders with an increased rate between 2021 and 2023, similarly to the Mediterranean countries in 2024 and for the following year—but having a higher cumulative order since the early 2010s.

Beyond Technological Supremacy: The Geopolitical Drivers of F-35 Procurement

Geopolitical dynamics play a central role in driving F-35 acquisitions.  Intensifying regional tensions in  the Indo-Pacific and the war in Ukraine have fundamentally altered many nations’ threat perceptions, thus driving them to  strengthen their deterrence in the sky.  For example, concerns over Russian aggression in Ukraine and the PRC’s increased  assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific and claims over Taiwan have prompted regional powers to invest in the F-35 to strengthen their deterrence capabilities. The Singaporean Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen shared reasons for these orders included Eastern Europe, U.S., and the PRC’s  economic disagreements and the Israel-Hamas war but pointed out the main concern being tensions regarding Taiwan. Japan also has the goal of aiding allies and defending islands in the South China Sea in the event of a regional war breaking out. In Eastern Europe, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) shared that Poland’s order would aid them in deterring regional aggression. Considering the peak in orders from Eastern European countries between 2023 and 2024, and similar peaks in orders starting in 2022 from Central European and Mediterranean countries, likely proximity to Ukraine and Russia pushed countries to address domestic security concerns and purchase the F-35 to increase military readiness . For example, Germany’s sharp increase in orders occurred days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, proving further correlation. 

Additionally, the F-35’s advanced stealth capabilities and compatibility with NATO requirements make it a highly attractive choice compared to other fighter jets on the market. Its superior technology, coupled with production costs that are competitive with those of comparable jets, further enhances its appeal. Germany sees the F-35 as the most advanced fighter jet on the market as it is near impossible to track the aircraft with radar. For many nations, acquiring the F-35 also aligns with the need to modernize their aging fleets. In the case of Australia, both operational capability requirements and aging fleets were reasons mentioned for choosing the fighter jet.

The recent rise in defense budgets among NATO countries has also created favorable conditions for purchasing F-35 jets: Italy allotted  €20.85 billion for its defense spending in 2024, €7 billion of which are earmarked for F-35s, and Germany pledged €100 million to meet the NATO requirement of 2% GDP and invested $8.8 billion for the purchase of the fighters. Countries outside of NATO have recently increased their budgets too, allowing for more purchase room: Singapore increased its defense budget by $1.5 billion compared to the previous year.

The Future of the F-35 FMS Program: An Enduring Ace Up Washington’s Sleeve

The F-35 continues to be one of the United States’ most potent foreign policy tools–not only supporting the domestic economy, but deepening alliances around the world. Through FMS, the U.S. can continuously advance its foreign policy goals, address regional security challenges, modernize allied fleets, and enhance interoperability among partners. The F-35’s adoption is not merely a testament to its technological superiority but also a reflection of its strategic utility in addressing the pressing security needs of nations facing immediate and long-term threats. The aircraft’s advanced capabilities and ability to operate effectively in contested environments have solidified its position as a key asset in modern defense strategies.

To fully harness the potential of the FMS program, the U.S. must adopt a region-specific approach to sales. Prioritizing nations with urgent security concerns, such as those bordering Russia or the PRC, ensures that the F-35 remains a critical tool in bolstering regional stability. Simultaneously, the U.S. should leverage F-35 sales as a diplomatic instrument to strengthen alliances and influence policy decisions in partner countries. For example, integrating potential entrants like Taiwan into the program could be a pivotal move to counter the PRC’s ever-growing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, provided it aligns with U.S. strategic priorities.

Incentivizing NATO members to meet the alliance’s 2% GDP defense spending target through conditional F-35 sales or prioritized delivery timelines for those nations which meet their spending goals sooner could further enhance collective security and ensure continued investment in the program. Maintenance and modernization packages, along with proposals for upgrades and additional systems, or provision assistance in integrating missile systems onto the jets, like in the United Kingdom’s case, should be marketed to reinforce trust and partnership, encouraging follow-up orders and extending the aircraft’s operational relevance.

Congress should also streamline the approval process for nations demonstrating strong commitments to NATO and regional stability, such as Poland, The Czech Republic, and Romania considering their proximity to the war in Ukraine and their recent increased acquisitions. It is likely that streamlining will incentivize sales given the urgency of their current defense needs. 

However, the program must address potential downsides to the F-35 program. Over-reliance on the F-35 could create vulnerabilities in supply chains, particularly during global conflicts that may disrupt U.S. production and exports. Disruptions may also be caused by components of the fighter jet being outsourced from foreign countries which causes dependency.  Additionally, oversaturating the market risks diminishing the aircraft’s strategic value and exclusivity, which have been instrumental in its success. Policymakers must also be vigilant about delays in production or delivery, which could erode trust among partner nations and weaken the program’s long-term viability.

Looking ahead, the F-35’s role in shaping international defense partnerships will likely expand, especially as regional tensions in Europe and the Indo-Pacific persist. The U.S. must remain proactive in aligning the program with evolving global defense trends while ensuring that sales align with its broader foreign policy objectives. By balancing immediate sales opportunities with long-term strategic considerations, the FMS program can continue to serve as a powerful tool for fostering alliances, projecting U.S. influence, and safeguarding global stability. Ultimately, the success of the F-35 program lies not only in its ability to meet the tactical needs of partner nations but also in its capacity to advance U.S. foreign policy goals and redefine the contours of international security in the 21st century.

*The industry reports the author has drawn on include: Terma: “F-35 Joint Strike Fighter” (2016); Lockheed Martin: “F-35 Lighting II” (n.d.); Chris Lange: “These Countries Are Buying the Most F-35 Lightning II Fighter Jets” (2024); The Canadian Press: “Defence Department Gets OK to Spend $7 Billion on 16 F-35 Fighter Jets: CP Sources” (2022); Redakcja: “Poland Gives up on F-35 Offset Agreement – MILMAG” (2020); Cenciotti, David: “Greece Signs Deal To Buy 20 F-35 Fighter Jets” (2024); Manuel, Rojoef: “Greece Procures First F-35 Jets from US” (2024); Fabian, Emanuel: “Israel Inks Deal to Buy 25 More F-35 Fighter Jets for $3 Billion” (2024); Aerospace and Defense News: “F-35 Program, Here Are All Records Achieved by Italy” (2021); Centre for International Policy Studies: “International Politics of the F-35” (2011); Defense Update: “Netherlands and Italy Increase F-35 Order” (2024); BN De Stem: “Kabinet besluit definitief tot aanschaf 37 JSF-straaljagers” (2025); Reuters: “Norway Receives First F-35 Fighter Jet” (2017); Mehta, Aaron: “Poland Cleared to Buy F-35 Fleet” (2019); Australian Aviation: “PM Confirms RAAF Order for 58 F-35As” (2014); Siebold, Sabine: “Exclusive: Germany Looking into Buying Eight Additional F-35 Jets” (2024); Chavez, Leilani: “Singapore to Buy Eight F-35 Jets, Raise Defense Budget” (2024); Darling, Daniel: “Republic of Korea Air Forces Get Clearance to Grow F-35 Fleet” (2023); Machi, Vivienne: “Swiss Leaders Sign $6.25 Billion Contract for F-35 Fighter Jets” (2022); Chuter, Andrew: “Two Reasons Britain Could Slow Its Purchase of the F-35” (2021); Ministry of Defence of the United Kingdom: “Defence in a Competitive Age” (2021); Chuter, Andrew: “UK Expects ‘Short-Term’ Delays in F-35 Deliveries” (2024); Singh, Inder Bisht: “Italy to Buy 25 Additional F-35s for over $7 Billion” (2024); Carlin, Maya: “Why the F-35 Might Be the Best Fighter Jet Ever” (2024); Abraham, Hannah: “Taiwan Wants to Buy F-35 Fighter Jets to Show Trump It’s Serious” (2024); Turkish Minute: “Turkey Renews F-35 Bid as US Signals Openness after Kaan Fighter Progress: Defense Minister” (2024); Aero Corner: “Eurofighter Typhoon vs Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II: Data Comparison.” (2025); North Atlantic Treaty Organization: “NATO Interoperability Standards and Profiles” (2023); Osborn, Kris: “5th Gen Air War: F-35 vs Chinese J-20 & J-31 and Russian Su-57” (2023); Aero Corner: “F-35 vs Rafale: Data Comparison” (2025); Aero Corner: “F-35 vs F/A-18: Data Comparison” (2025). 

This is a guest contribution. Views expressed are the author’s own and do not represent the views of GSSR, Georgetown University, or any other entity. Image Credit: Canva Images