Beyond Conflict: The Ripple Effect of Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea

On October 19, 2023, the U.S.S. Carney intercepted three Houthi cruise missiles and several drones in the Red Sea. The missiles were launched from Yemen and targeted commercial vessels, decidedly marking the beginning of ongoing confrontations with Houthi insurgents in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. This takes place against the backdrop of a broader conflict between the United States, Israel, and their allies with Iran’s proxy groups amid the Israel-Hamas War.

The implications of Houthi rebels’ ongoing attacks extend to various domains beyond warfare. With global maritime shipping routes, energy security, telecommunications infrastructure, and aquatic ecosystems at risk, the Red Sea crisis unveils how the far-reach of terrorist activity can upend regional and international stability. Ultimately, the widespread ideological underpinnings of the conflict in Gaza shed light on how the Houthis can capitalize on the war to wage terror for their own agendas.

The Houthis, an Iran-backed group rooted in Shia Islamism and based in Yemen, gained momentum during the Arab Spring movement in 2011. The group took over much of the Yemeni Saada province by 2016 and currently controls much of the northern region and Yemen’s capital, Sana’a. The United States recently denounced the Houthis as a Specially Designated Terrorist group following increasingly violent behavior and a spike in mobilization throughout the Israel-Hamas War.

The Far-Reach of the Houthis

Since October 2023, Houthi attacks have consistently disrupted maritime shipping routes, beckoning a U.S. military response. The Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are essential choke points in maritime shipping – unrest in these waters shocks the global economy and jeopardizes the stability of international commerce. For instance, rising cargo insurance rates combined with new war risk premiums resulted in a rapid increase in price for Suez Canal passage. Financial concerns and safety considerations are pushing shipping companies to opt for other routes in lieu of the quicker and more cost-efficient passages. However, the best alternative is to divert ships to the Cape of Good Hope, which can delay deliveries by as little as ten days and as much as one month.

Apart from the immediate, physical impact of the attacks, U.S. military and civilian leaders undoubtedly view trade disruption as a chief concern. U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, the naval facet of CENTCOM that oversees maritime security in the Red Sea, regards the “freedom of navigation and the free flow of maritime commerce” as its top priority. Further, for some civilian leaders, the economic impact is problematic. January and February 2024 alone saw a 50 percent decrease in Suez Canal trade, risking economic turmoil in Egypt.

Similarly, fuel demand skyrocketed as a result of shipping disruptions and longer trade routes. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) both foresee growth in oil demand in 2024. Additionally, the IEA has raised its oil demand growth numbers four times since November 2023, predicting that more oil will be consumed this year than anticipated. Fear of further disruptions shocking energy markets could rattle international economic stability. Domestically, fear of inflation and higher gas prices are already manifesting in American public discourse, adding another layer of urgency to U.S. leaders’ Israel-Hamas strategy.

Houthi activity similarly disrupted telecommunications and internet usage following reports of damage to crucial underwater cables under the Bab al-Mandeb. These cables are responsible for about 90 percent of communications between Europe and Asia. It is unclear whether the cables were intentionally targeted or merely collateral damage. However, the Houthis may have inadvertently revealed vulnerable infrastructure that supports vital communication, posing a threat to regional allies and making future threats to these cables or others plausible.

Further, Houthi rebels endangered Red Sea ecosystems after using an anti-ballistic missile to sink a cargo ship carrying roughly 21,000 metric tons of fertilizer. CENTCOM and the Yemeni government both confirmed the sinking would likely result in an environmental disaster as the ammonium phosphate sulfate fertilizer pollutes the waters. This contamination could “devastate marine life and destroy coral reefs, sea life and jeopardize hundreds of thousands of jobs in the fishing industry as well as cut littoral states off from supplies of food and fuel,” according to the Intergovernmental Authority on Development.

Targeting Terrorism

The Red Sea crisis is uniquely complicated. The Houthis’ behavior is contingent on the Israel-Hamas War – a Houthi official recently demanded immediate humanitarian relief to Gaza, explicitly signaling that continued attacks are a result of stalled negotiations. Considering the fragile state of these negotiations, unmarrying the Houthis from the conflict and holding the group accountable as a terrorist organization separate from the war in Gaza could help deter their efforts.

The situation is particularly urgent as civilian leaders are in an increasingly precarious position and might bend to the will of the Houthis to cease Red Sea hostilities. For instance, Egypt, a key player in ceasefire negotiations, now has an economic incentive to push Israeli compliance in efforts to restabilize the Suez Canal.  As such, policymakers must recognize the political and diplomatic repercussions that might arise from the fallout of the Red Sea incidents.

Despite consistent U.S. and allied counterstrikes against the Houthis, the group recently indicated future “surprises” for battles, including a new hypersonic missile in their arsenal. U.S. policymakers must refocus Middle East defense strategy as the breadth of the war extends. When countering terrorists and nonstate actors, shifting defense tactics to a more irregular style of warfare is essential. Houthi rebels have proven that irregular strikes and skirmishes can successfully weaken the energy market, disrupt trade and commerce, create environmental disasters, and upend international stability. Continuing to bolster counterterrorism domestically and abroad and integrating it into the Gaza defense strategy could help address the Houthi dilemma.

The Red Sea crisis characterizes the ability of terrorists and nonstate actors to use ideologically aligned conflicts as a catalyst for mobilization. Ultimately, the Israel-Hamas War breeds an environment in which the Houthis and others can capitalize on the plight of the Palestinians to justify attacks against adversaries. It allows them to garner international attention and recruit members to their cause. The non-warfare implications of the Houthis’ attacks shed light on the broad reach of terrorism and the multidimensional approach it necessitates. The defense that the U.S.S. Carney provides is undoubtedly vital to maritime security, but thus far, traditional maritime defense has not deterred the Houthis. Instead, the interconnectedness of policy, diplomacy, and military strategy will be fundamental to addressing the Red Sea crisis and the collateral damage left in its wake.

Views expressed are the author’s own and do not represent the views of GSSR, Georgetown University, or any other entity. Image Credit: USIP