Cloaked in a Cause: Madagascar’s ‘Gen Z’ Protests and the Inadvertent Preservation of Power

Although the October 2025 military coup in Madagascar occurred within a broader context of social upheaval and youth political participation, observers should refrain from perceiving this succession as a win for the people. While civil unrest successfully catalyzed an ostensible shift in political leadership, the new military government co-opted the uprising to manufacture legitimacy for military rule. If the new regime is unable to secure a political advantage within the two-year timeframe it proposed for elections, it is likely that the government will pursue extended, populist military rule akin to juntas in West Africa. Malagasy protestors and international institutions must sustain their momentum to secure the reforms essential to establishing legitimate and sustainable governance in Madagascar.

The ‘Gen Z’ Movement

“Gen Z protests” have seen widespread participation with varying degrees of success in combating income inequality and corruption around the world. This wave of international unrest is characterized by decentralized youth using social media platforms for mobilization and encrypted communication platforms like Signal for coordination. Youth leaders in Nepal, disgruntled with the government’s ban on social media platforms after noncompliance with a new registration law, disseminated anti-government content online and ignited protests. Protestors instigated the Prime Minister’s resignation, burned down the parliament building, and demanded the rescission of social media bans, resulting in dozens of protester deaths after severe government repression. Youth leaders in Morocco, triggered by the deaths of eight pregnant women in an Agadir hospital, followed suit by organizing the decentralized “GenZ 212” movement and mobilizing against social inequality. Protestors sparked promising reforms in national budget allocation toward healthcare, education, and youth civic participation, though also met government repression. Similar unrest is spreading in countries like Peru, Serbia, Kenya, and the Philippines, and will likely spread to others. Demonstrators across the world cite other youth protests as inspiration for efforts in their own countries, indicating an evolution of protest contagion from a regional to a global process.

Extensive protests in Madagascar began on September 25 due to water and power cuts but quickly metastasized into a movement seeking comprehensive government reform and economic empowerment. According to the World Bank, 70% of the population lives below the poverty line, 70% of the population is considered multi-dimensionally poor (healthcare, education, and living conditions), and 45% of the working-age population is unemployed. Gen Z Madagascar, one of the decentralized groups responsible for coordinating the protests, has called for political inclusivity, accountability, transparency, and economic opportunity, affirming its commitment to non-violent dissent. Although former president Andry Rajoelina attempted to maintain authority during the crisis by dissolving his cabinet and offering dialogue, protestors rejected these efforts and demanded his resignation. Ultimately, government repression of the protests resulted in hundreds of casualties and provided an opportunity for the armed forces to assert its dominance of Malagasy politics.

Protest Turned Military Coup

Amid civil unrest and moderate violence between law enforcement and protestors, influential actors in the Malagasy military formulated a coup d’état using protests to manufacture legitimacy for their intervention. On October 11, an influential Malagasy military logistics unit known as the Corps d’armée des personnels et des services administratifs et techniques (CAPSAT) defected and joined protestors in advocating for the removal of President Rajoelina from power. On October 12, CAPSAT leadership announced its seizure of control over the Malagasy armed forces. On October 14, CAPSAT appointed Colonel Michael Randrianirina as the interim President of Madagascar, who then suspended essential democratic institutions in the Malagasy government. CAPSAT used public support to legitimize its overthrow of the government and continues to identify the protestors as the true patriots bringing them to power.

CAPSAT’s seizure of power and subsequent behavior have not signaled a substantial commitment to government reform, nor even a change from precedent. Promising to hold elections in two years, President Randrianirina hit the reset button on governance in Madagascar. The new administration dissolved several critical institutions for democratic governance, including the Senate, which impeached former President Rajoelina, and the High Constitutional Court, which ratified President Randrianirina’s accession to power. Other putschist regimes in Africa have failed to implement short-term transitional governments, which may legitimize an extension of Madagascar’s coup if CAPSAT cannot secure a comfortable political advantage within the proposed election timeline. Activists and analysts alike should recognize that CAPSAT was also responsible for the 2009 Malagasy coup. While that crisis eventually led to a somewhat democratic system, CAPSAT’s recurrent intervention signals that it is more concerned with accommodating the Malagasy military’s interests than establishing a legitimate democratic government.

Domestic and International Responses

Protestor reactions to the coup have been mixed, indicating that civil unrest is likely to continue until a legitimate government is in place. According to the EU-Africa Chamber of Commerce, a majority of Malagasy citizens prefer democratic governance over any other system. Despite some positive protestor reactions upon the initial onset of the military takeover, President Randrianirina’s suspension of key government institutions and unpopular selection for Prime Minister, Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo, have turned many Malagasy citizens against him. The appointment of Rajaonarivelo, a prominent and well-connected businessman, has signaled to protestors that CAPSAT prioritizes corrupt elites in its decision-making. Still, residual anti-French sentiment and pan-African mythologizing of putschist regimes like Ibrahim Traoré’s government in Burkina Faso could contribute to a shift in public opinion toward alternative forms of government. 

The protest movement’s long-term goals of establishing a freer, more transparent, and more economically successful society relies on its ability to maintain political momentum and signal severe costs to CAPSAT if democratic reforms are not instituted. Observers of the coup should perceive the two-year transitional period not as an established timeline for democratic reform, but as a timeframe in which the military government seeks to test the population’s resolve for change. The regime will likely drag its feet on reestablishing the democratic institutions that it suspended, maximizing elites’ profits in the short-term while incrementally reintroducing reforms to minimize the public’s demands as they become increasingly costly. To ensure fair elections take place in two years as scheduled, civil society in Madagascar must maintain its pressure on the regime to reinstate democratic institutions, root out corruption, and elevate Malagasy citizens’ political rights.

Multilateral institutions have widely condemned the coup as an unconstitutional overthrow of a democratically elected government, but foreign powers should be careful not to inflame backsliding with reductive punishment. As seen in the Sahel over the last five years, sanctions and exclusion from international engagement can backfire by sparking severe realignment away from the liberal international community. International institutions should focus on supporting the Malagasy people in their personal pursuit of democracy, feeding its civil society and uplifting the Malagasy press to enhance political transparency. Rather than coercing CAPSAT to adopt democratic ideals, the international community can empower the Malagasy public in pursuing those reforms themselves by providing foreign aid for civil society actors and uplifting the Malagasy cause throughout the international community.

The Future of Madagascar

As the enthusiasm for reform begins to fade and the reality of autocratic rule comes into focus, the Malagasy people should not accept every change as a step in the right direction. Observers should be wary of shortsighted optimism, given that the excitement of political movements, particularly those led by the youth, can be co-opted by those who seek to uphold the status quo. The institutionalization and legitimation of democratic reforms rely on continued mobilization and relentless international support for civil society. Malagasy citizens should continue rallying to signal to the new regime that anything less than a fair and transparent democracy is unacceptable. Moving forward, protestors should highlight the dangers of autocratic military rule and advocate for a sustainable, transparent, and representative government. Global actors should be careful not to isolate the new Malagasy government from the international community, providing it a democratization off-ramp as public mobilization increases the domestic costs of autocratic rule.

Views expressed are the author’s own and do not represent the views of GSSR, Georgetown University, or any other entity. Image Credit: The Economist